
Posted July 03, 2026
By Greg Guenthner
The S-E-T System for Finding Breakout Stocks
Most people who talk about markets on the internet have never managed real money through a real drawdown.
They haven’t had to sit in front of a losing trade, hold their conviction, and let the chart tell them when to exit.
And they haven’t built a system disciplined enough to produce consistent results across hundreds of trades over time.
But I have.
As a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), I’ve focused on reading charts for more than two decades.
My approach is built on a repeatable, rules-based process grounded in price, volume, and pattern recognition — not headlines or macro predictions.
It’s the same framework I apply every day in my Trading Desk portfolio, where the average position has a gain of 24% and a hold time of just a few weeks.
Today, I want to pull back the curtain and show you exactly how I read charts.
I’ll also show you how I use that process to consistently narrow thousands of stocks down to just a handful of high-probability setups.
And I’ll even give you three specific stocks that I like right now based on their charts. Let’s dive in.
The S-E-T Framework: Screen, Evaluate, Trigger
My entire process for finding high-probability, asymmetric trades boils down to three regimented steps.
I call it the “S-E-T Framework.”
It’s simple enough to remember, yet rigorous enough to filter a universe of 10,000 stocks down to just three actionable trades.
Step 1: Screen (Narrow the Field)
The biggest hurdle for any trader is scale.
There are simply too many stocks to look at manually. The goal of a stock screener is not to automatically spit out the perfect trade, but rather to cut the chaos down to a manageable watchlist.
I use the screener on Finviz.com. My initial screen is incredibly simple, utilizing just two parameters:
- Market Cap over $10 Billion: I filter out small, illiquid companies because I want stocks with heavy institutional volume that also have liquid options markets.
- 50-Day Highs: I look for stocks that are right at (or just about to hit) new 50-day highs. This ensures I am only looking at stocks that are already exhibiting strength and moving in an established uptrend.
This basic screen typically takes the massive stock universe and narrows it down to about 117 charts to review in real-time.
Step 2: Evaluate (Cut the Losers)
With a manageable list of roughly 100 charts, the elimination process begins.
I first sort by sector, immediately tossing out entire categories of stocks I’m not interested in trading because they don’t fit my system's specific growth profile.
Next, I hover over the remaining tickers to quickly view their charts, tossing out the "ugly" ones. An ugly chart is one characterized by volatile whipsaws and chaotic price action.
Instead, I’m hunting for orderly charts: stocks that are consolidating, moving sideways, and resting near important price levels after a period of strength.
Step 3: Trigger (Know When to Pull It)
Finding a good stock is only half the battle.
In short-term trading, your timing matters more than anything else. If you buy too early, you risk sitting through a drawdown; if you buy too late, you miss the meat of the move.
I look for one of two specific entry signals:
- A Breakout: The stock pushes convincingly above a key resistance level where sellers previously held the stock down.
- A Meaningful Bounce: The stock pulls back to a tested support level and immediately bounces, proving that buyers are actively stepping in at that specific price.
The ultimate discipline in this step is to ignore the news cycle.
Price always happens first, and the news happens second. If a stock is breaking out cleanly on the chart, the positive fundamental news will eventually surface to explain the move.
The 3 Stocks I Like Right Now
Applying the S-E-T Framework, I’ve identified three specific large-cap stocks that are flashing excellent technical setups.
1. Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)
Tech stocks have dominated the headlines for months. But with the potentially choppy summer trading months approaching, now’s a great time to check out strong names in other sectors.

BROS has been a choppy mess for more than 18 months. Now the stock is starting to firm up thanks to a bullish reaction to its May earnings announcement.
Note the 2025 swing highs near $74, which are fast approaching. A sustained move above this level would likely trigger a fast rally.
Also note increasing momentum (measured by RSI in the lower panel). The stock reached official “overbought” levels in May for the first time since early 2025, a bullish sign for this stock as it attempts to build a new uptrend.
The Setup: BROS is now pushing toward the $74 swing highs. A close above this mark would likely trigger a short-term breakout to the Feb. 2025 all-time highs near $86.
I like BROS for a short-term trade on a breakout move. It would also be a solid position trade candidate following this breakout. Consider a 3–4 month hold time with a target above $100, depending on market conditions.
2. Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Good ol’ Apple Computer is finally breaking out of its June funk at the start of the third quarter.

The stock peaked in early June along with the rest of the Mag 7 crew and subsequently endured a quick, double-digit reset.
While the chip stocks hogged the spotlight, AAPL was hit hard after announcing price increases across most of its products due to extreme semiconductor demand.
But this mega-cap is quickly turning around as the calendar flips to July. AAPL was one of tech’s biggest winners to close out the week, jumping nearly 5% ahead of the long weekend.
Despite undercutting its December 2025 highs last week, the stock is now successfully breaking out of a bull flag pattern as it takes out $300.
The Setup: AAPL sank as the Mags stayed out of favor as the second quarter ended.
Now that it has successfully pushed through, it has a massive amount of room to make up from its June swoon.
The momentum is shifting from sellers to buyers. Expect a quick move to $320 over the next several sessions.
From there, more all-time highs are well within reach.
3. Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY)
Speaking of rotation, the healthcare sector is beginning to heat up. And one of the biggest players in the group just posted new highs.

LLY spent six months consolidating following a rapid rise to new highs back in November 2025. This is where the $1,100 level became a strong area of horizontal resistance.
But LLY was able to get over the hump in June after reaching bullish overbought levels in late May. The stock broke through $1,100 and then posted a picture-perfect retest a little more than a week later.
Now, the stock has rallied to $1,200 and appears to be setting up for additional gains.
The Setup: LLY has already cleared resistance and has successfully retested its breakout zone. Now, the stock is resting following its initial breakout.
Considering the length of the consolidation period, this new uptrend should have many weeks to go before it runs out of steam. Consider a position trade with a target of $1,400 over the next 2–3 months.
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