At the beginning of the year, I shared five of my top predictions for 2026.

They ranged from stock market leadership to interest rates and even bitcoin.

Now that we have reached the halfway point of the year, I thought it would be a good time to revisit my predictions.

Of course, it’s too early to officially call these one way or another. Anything can happen in the next six months.

But so far, it looks like more than a few of my predictions are right on the money.

Let’s check back in on them one at a time, starting with the market’s biggest stocks.

Prediction #1: The Mag 7 (Barely) Underperform

This one was pretty much dead on. After years of outperformance, the Mag 7 are definitely lagging in 2026.

Here’s a table showing the results by individual stock versus the S&P 500.

In aggregate, the group was down roughly -3% halfway into the year, compared to a +9.3% gain for the S&P 500.

If you take out the Mag 7 and look at the “S&P 493,” the outperformance is even clearer. The rest of the index is up more than +14%.

So far, this prediction looks good.

One part I got wrong is that I expected Nvidia would be the main reason the Mag 7 underperformed, but it’s actually been one of the strongest of the group.

I think these stocks will finish the year trailing the overall S&P 500, although we could see a nice rally in the second half to close the gap.

So, despite a rough start to the year, I would actually be a buyer of the Mag 7 right now.

Prediction #2: Small Caps Finally Outperform

I absolutely nailed this one!

Through the first half of 2026, the small-cap Russell 2000 index was up +22%, or more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

Again, this played out a bit differently than I expected.

I originally predicted that interest rate cuts would help power small-cap stocks.

Instead, we’re seeing specific groups (like semiconductors) and an overall acceleration in economic growth powering the index.

I still like small caps and think these stocks could see the best year in the last decade.

Prediction #3: Rates Matter Again (But Not Inflation)

This one hasn’t been as spot-on as my first two predictions.

My view was that 2026 could be the year when we finally saw a big move in interest rates.

Lower inflation, a new Fed chair, President Trump’s emphasis on lower rates, and the potential for an AI growth “scare” were all elements I thought could lead to lower rates.

But we have seen the opposite in each one of these.

The Iran conflict drove inflation higher, AI investments have accelerated economic growth, and the new Fed chair has been vocal about his independence.

This puts us back where we have been for the last few years. Rates don’t matter all that much.

At this point, I expect that to remain true for the full year.

Prediction #4: The Market Gets Volatile — But Ends 2026 Up

It’s too early to definitively call this one, so I’ll give myself an “incomplete” for now.

We have seen some volatility with the Iran conflict. But surprisingly, it has been less volatile than last year’s tariff scare.

If anything, most of the volatility we have seen has been to the upside as certain momentum-oriented industry groups have soared.

I still think we could see a big pickup in volatility as we move through the year. And I think the market will end up nicely for the year.

So get ready for a bumpy (but fun) ride in the second half of 2026.

Prediction #5: Bitcoin Hits $250k

Yeah, no. I got this one wrong!

Bitcoin showed some strength around the time of the Iran conflict.

But momentum rotation into semiconductors and AI infrastructure has pulled capital away from many other momentum-oriented investments.

This has been one of the factors that hurt the Mag 7, and it’s definitely one of the factors impacting bitcoin.

I still like bitcoin for the long-term. But at this point, I think it’s safe to say $250,000 is not in the cards for 2026.

Overall, I would give myself a passing grade (for now, at least) on my set of predictions.

I look forward to the second half of the year — and the opportunities it has in store!