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Bitcoin’s Breakout Is Just the Beginning

Posted September 25, 2026

Greg Guenthner

By Greg Guenthner

Bitcoin’s Breakout Is Just the Beginning

The rip-roaring stock market rally we enjoyed at the start of the week has encountered some turbulence.

Yields are rocketing higher, with the 30-year hitting its highest level in more than 20 years as odds of an October rate hike soar.

FedWatch now shows a 70% chance of another hike next month, up from less than 50% just last week.

The market is none too happy about this ongoing global bond selloff.

Stocks have reversed hard just days after the Nasdaq posted new all-time highs.

And the wall of worry continues to grow, with Middle East tensions, energy prices, and rates looming large as the quarter draws to an end.

But there’s one major asset class setting up for higher prices in the fourth quarter…

That’s right, crypto is back in action.

Bitcoin and its peers are finally waking up following a grueling 10-month bear market that bled optimism dry and left most investors exhausted.

Bitcoin’s initial surge off its August lows bears all the classic hallmarks of an early-stage “disbelief rally” that typically kicks off a new longer-term uptrend.

As market participants scramble to gain exposure, crypto is lining up to be a massive outperformer heading into 2027.

The evidence is stacking up in favor of an extended crypto rally.

Now’s our chance to dig into the charts, along with some of the best crypto-related names to trade heading into October.

Waiting Was the Hardest Part

You probably didn’t nail the exact bottom in crypto as Bitcoin suddenly shot higher last month.

No problem! Turnaround trades can be tough. And bottom fishing always seems to get traders into trouble.

You’re much better off if you wait for confirmation that a move is going to stick before plowing all your hard-earned money into a trade. Just think of all the times Bitcoin looked like it might rally this year, only to slip back to its lows. 

The August rally has turned into an important signal for two key reasons. First, Bitcoin was able to reclaim its 200-day moving average during its initial push above $70,000.

Prior to this move, it had been unable to break above this longer-term moving average since reversing lower late last year.

Next, Bitcoin was able to top its May swing highs at $82,000 earlier this week following a tight, orderly consolidation.

This initial thrust off Bitcoin’s lows, followed by another rally above horizontal resistance, is exactly the move the crypto bulls wanted.

Bitcoin had already completed a full reset back to the prior cycle’s highs in the low $60,000 range. Now, we’re getting all the confirmation we need to give Bitcoin and its crypto brethren the green light into October.

Bitcoin stock chart

The current Bitcoin breakout also perfectly aligns with its longer-term bull/bear cycles.

All Star Charts analyst Alfonso De Pablos points out that major Bitcoin lows have been spaced almost exactly 3.91 years apart (January 2015, December 2018, November 2022).

This time was no different, with the lows aligning perfectly with previous cycles.

Then there’s Ethereum. Late last month, we discussed how Ethereum had already broken above its April-May highs.

Following its own consolidation, Ethereum has now extended higher to confirm the move off the lows. This week’s thrust places Ethereum near $2,700, levels we have not seen since the late January/early February meltdown.

How to Trade the Crypto Follow-Through

Let’s tackle some big crypto questions following this week’s rally:

Should I buy Bitcoin heading into the fourth quarter?

Yes, I think there’s plenty of room for the coins to run heading into 2027. Bitcoin will likely shoot back toward $100,000 in the weeks ahead.

Longer-term, I believe this change in trend will lead to the next major leg higher that will send Bitcoin beyond its all-time highs.

For reference, a 50%-plus rally from today’s prices is what Bitcoin needs to top those Oct. 2025 highs around $126K.

For Ethereum, I’m targeting $3,400 in the weeks ahead. This level coincides with the January swing highs.

Ethereum has a lot more work to do to get back to its all-time highs. But if we are in fact entering the next major bullish crypto regime, it can potentially outperform Bitcoin. 

Are there any crypto-adjacent equities I should consider as the sector firms up?

Yep! I love to target crypto stocks for short-term trades when we enter favorable trading environments.

Remember, the crypto miners and other names in the space tend to get slammed during crypto winters. But they also can deliver explosive upside when the bull market returns.

Just look at Strategy Inc. (MSTR). This was a name no one wanted to touch when Bitcoin was locked in its months-long downtrend. Plenty of smart people were predicting its imminent collapse back in the summer.

Now, the polarizing stock has rallied a whopping 70% since its initial move in late August. Think of MSTR as a “call option” on Bitcoin. It will move quickly in the wrong direction if Bitcoin drops. But it also amplifies the rallies.

Many of the crypto miners have attempted to pivot their businesses to align with the need for AI datacenters. But they’re still solid snapback candidates as the current crypto rally matures.

Hut 8 (HUT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Mara Holdings (MARA) are all solid short-term trading candidates on breakout moves.

Bottom line: I like playing the crypto stocks as opposed to the smaller alt-coins. They’re more liquid and offer far better trading opportunities through the options market.

As long as this Bitcoin move continues to build above $80,000, we have a green light to explore plenty of bullish trading options heading into the fourth quarter and beyond.

Short-term pullbacks are solid buying opportunities. And breakouts should extend to offer traders plenty of fat pitches to knock out of the park heading into 2027.

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